Trades graded below:
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Bucks and Wizards trade Khris Middleton for Kyle Kuzma
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76ers and Mavericks trade Caleb Martin for Quentin Grimes
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Hornets and Thunder exchange seconds (really!)
Previous grades:
I’ll be updating this throughout the day, so check back often!
I want to try something a little different. To get my trade grades out quickly without inundating readers’ inboxes if they don’t want to be submerged in details about second-round pick swaps, I will be testing Substack’s ability to publish to the website without sending out an email. Later, I’ll send everything I’ve written as one big email at the end of each day. This is a test, so if you’re reading this via email during your Wednesday lunch break, the test failed! Sorry.
Regardless, if Jimmy Butler, Kevin Durant, or a megastar gets traded, don’t worry; I’ll send the grades straight to your inbox as soon as possible. Everyone else will be lumped together for today and then again for tomorrow.
I’ll try to update this regularly as the trade deadline approaches, so check back frequently!
Bucks receive: Kyle Kuzma, Patrick Baldwin Jr., second-rounder
Wizards receive: Khris Middleton, AJ Johnson, 2028 first-round pick swap
This trade had been expected for some time, but it’s no less interesting.
Let’s start with the Wizards. While Kuzma vetoed a trade to Dallas last year, presumably enjoying his status as Washington's offensive centerpiece, he changed his tune this season when the Wizards made it clear that developing the young guys was their new priority.
Kuzma, 29, wasn’t exactly a good soldier. He had a hilarious quote a few weeks ago, after a season-best 30 points and 11 rebounds, when he said that he was done “trying to fit into everything that we’re doing here… being more assertive, demanding the ball, not just going out there and trying to let people develop.”
Once upon a time, Kuzma was a championship-winning role player for the 2020 Los Angeles Lakers. He flashed shotmaking confidence (although he’s only made a third of his career threes, he’s certainly not shy in getting them up) and even proved to be capable defensively when it mattered.
By the end of his Washington tenure, most of that had disappeared. Kuzma became known for his selfishness and lazy defense, and the shot never quite materialized.
Kuzma has some on-ball juice, including a surprisingly effective running hook shot. But on a team with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, he won’t be able just to dribble around and do whatever he wants. He’ll be asked to spot up, cut, and defend.
The Bucks are hoping that he can find his mid-twenties form again. I’m a little skeptical that he can rekindle a competitive spirit allowing this layup to happen into something brighter:
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When he wants to be, Kuzma is still a big body who can move his feet a little on defense. However, he’ll have to adjust to guarding small forwards again (he’s been playing a lot of four in Washington), which may present some initial struggles. Offensively, Kuzma will be doing a lot more catch-and-shooting than he’s used to, which is unfortunate since he’s shooting 28% on catch-and-shoots this season (although he’s typically hovered in the mid-30s, slightly below average).
On the other hand, Middleton had fallen off a cliff this season after years of mounting injuries. He’s still capable of making open shots, and his chemistry with Giannis remains top-notch. But he can’t really bend defenses off the dribble anymore, and his defense, outside of gambling for a few steals, has been borderline catastrophic. The team had benched him of late, and at 33 years old, it’s hard to see him making a comeback.
That said, while Kuzma is clearly a better player than this version of Middleton, I’m not sure he’ll be much more impactful. If he can tap into his role-player vibes again, there’s definitely some positive upside. But Kuzma hasn’t had to do that in a long time; that button might be broken.
AJ Johnson hasn’t had many NBA moments, but he was Milwaukee’s first-round pick this year. He’s had plenty of flashes in the G-League and has shot the ball well on a small sample size (he’s certainly confident). I’m not super optimistic about him, but I also haven’t seen enough to have strongly held opinions at this point. He’s not a total throw-in.
This transaction isn’t purely about a talent upgrade, however. Middleton has been a huge part of Milwaukee’s success for years. But he has a player option for $34M next season, something an old and expensive Milwaukee team desperately wanted to rid themselves of to save tens of millions in luxury-tax payments. Kuzma, by contrast, will only make $21.5M next season and $19.5 the season after. If Kuzma can play at the level the Bucks think he’s capable of, that will be more than fair compensation.
Even more importantly, with this maneuver, the Bucks drop below the second apron (Bobby Marks reported that Kuzma is reducing his trade kicker to make that happen). That will allow them greater flexibility if they want to make additional moves — there’s potential energy in that, although Milwaukee needs to find a way to make it kinetic.
More than most deals, there are really two aspects to this grade: the on-court switcheroo (which, meh) and the financial component (which they did well on). Giving up Johnson and a single swap, which theoretically might not even convey (who knows if the Wizards are good or Bucks bad in 2028?), isn’t a terrible price to get off of Middleton’s contract if there were no bigger stars to be had.
Overall, I wish the Bucks had found a way to get markedly better on the court, particularly since Middleton was their best matching salary. If nothing else, they at least gained a little flexibility. That’s important, too.
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